1. To tie four proper knots: reef, clove hitch, bowline, sheet bend
2. To properly and confidently administer CPR and first aid
3. To correctly identify common screwdrivers (Straight, Philips, and Robertson - 4 main sizes/colours)

2005 | 2008 | 2009

If you find that your Garmin GPS all of a sudden started beeping endlessly when you shut it off it's probably because you hooked it up to a Mac. You need to reformat your MicroSD card to fix it.

See here for more information.

Tropical Storm Danny just formed off the coast of the Bahamas and has a foretasted track to come over the Maritimes this coming weekend. I could get used to this Hurricane a weekend type of lifestyle.

It's on its way and it's shifted slightly north and west of the previous warning track. The Canadian Hurricane centre has just released updated watches and warnings.

Bill is now on track to at least brush by the Maritimes. Is it time to panic? Not yet. If I was living in the following provinces I would:

• New Brunswick: Relax but keep an eye on it. You're not currently going to be affected with any of the model guidance. The storm is still far off though so check in on it to make sure it hasn't changed it's mind.
• PEI: Keep a close eye on the storm and make sure you have the basics on hand (which you really should have on hand at all times). There is no need to rush to Home Depot to buy plywood to cover your windows. Current estimates put Bill south of us. We're just on the edge. Any slight deviation and we could get much more than a graze. Check in on the storm and adjust your plans accordingly. Either way this storm goes we're going to get some wind and rain.
• Nova Scotia: You might get lucky with just a graze (which is still going to be a significant weather event). At the least think a nasty winter storm but with trees still having all of their foliage intact. At the worst you're at a fairly significant chance of getting a direct hit by a hurricane or a storm with hurricane force winds. Ensure you have what you need for 72 hours (3 days).

I'm travelling to Ontario this weekend and will not be able to post updates as regularly. Please check Environment Canada's warnings in the days to come to make sure you're in the know.

Given the new forecast from the Nantional Hurricane Center I would say that now is the time to start watching Bill a little more closely. It's still not time to rush to the SuperStore and buy batteries and water (you should have those anyway).

The forecast track has been shifting further and further west with each update. This is a little atypical for a storm as they tend to drift a little further east once they make their turn North.

So what should you do now? Nothing. Maybe have a BBQ and make plans for the weekend. Keep an eye on here or even better the Canadian Hurricane Centre. As National Hurricane Center's forecaster Blake said in his 5pm discussion:

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

Don't start panicking. Despite what some local news organizations are reporting (they've since changed their headline) Bill is still over 3,000 kilometres away and is not yet a real or significant threat to the Maritime Provinces.

Forecasting is 80% science, 15% art, and 5% luck. When the National Hurricane Center releases a forecast path it is more of a guideline than a rule. To create the "official" path they run a series of models against the current data and evaluate the outcomes. Often the majority of models will be grouped together in a cluster and there will be a few wildcards. If this is the case they throw out the wildcards and use the cluster as a consensus and then average them to create the "official path". Often one model will perform more accurately than others for a given circumstance and they'll start to favour that model during their evaluation.

Here is a look at the latest model predictions courtesy of StormPulse.com (great site).

As you can see there are two distinct groupings of models. A group swinging around Bermuda and making a sharp curve to the right and another more gradual swoop bringing the hurricane close to the Maritimes. The forecasters, as noted in the "discussion" are just making educated guesses on it's track past 72 hours from now.

THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP TURN OUT TO SEA. OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. -- FORECASTER BEVEN

So what does this mean for those of us who live in the Maritimes? Not much yet. We've been in this position many times before. Sometimes we get hit, most times we don't. If we do get hit it's often petered out by the time it reaches us this far north.

So don't panic but please stay tuned.