Hurricane Noel survived the night. With the additional 12 hours of forward movement we now know the path is virtually guaranteed to go through the Maritimes.

Noel is forecast to change into a post tropical cyclone later today. While that doesn't sound as scary as a hurricane it still is forecast to be a massive weather system packing winds up to 120km/h and lots of rain. While the transition is expected later today it is not guaranteed to happen in the allotted timeframe.

As you can see from the track Noel is moving along at a very rapid pace. While the track is dead-on for PEI it will be over very quickly as the system races over us.

Noel will not be a Juan. It will still be a great storm but think more of a strong nor'easter. Who knows though? Noel might maintain its hurricane status, funnel right up the Fundy and smash into us as a category 2 hurricane. Stranger things have happened.